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Trump Tariffs to Hit North American Energy Trade

US president Donald Trump is set to disrupt the integrated North American energy market with tariffs of 10pc on Canadian energy imports and 25pc on Mexico-sourced energy commodities, effective on 4 February.

Trump on Saturday issued executive orders that would impose taxes of 25pc on all imports from Mexico and 25pc on all non-energy imports from Canada, effective on 4 February. Most energy commodities imported from Canada would be subject to a lower, 10pc tariff. Imported goods in transit before 12:01am ET on 1 February would not be subject to those levies.

The Canada energy exemption applies to "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water and critical minerals".

Trump and the White House did not explain why he made a slight concession on the Canadian energy commodities. The US-Canada energy trade is particularly vulnerable to tariffs, for both sides. More than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Conversely, many refineries in the US midcontinent have no practical alternative to the Canadian crude.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Saturday that it would "continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation's energy advantage and support American jobs".

Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on China, by declaring a "national emergency" related to alleged inability of those countries to stem the flow of migrants and illegal drug fentanyl to the US.

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Trump's Energy Executive Orders Being Watched in West Virginia

The Trump administration’s plan to lower prices and unleash American energy could have an effect on grocery store prices before reducing inflation, according to a WVU economist.

West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economic Research Director John Deskins said in theory more energy should lower market prices but the American economy is so large and complex that just one factor is not likely to make a big difference.

John Deskins

“Energy for sure is an important driver of inflation; there are many other drivers, but energy is an important driver,” Deskins said during a recent appearance on WAJR’s “Talk of the Town.”. “If Trump’s policies are successful in lowering energy prices, that could have an important effect on inflation.”

Trump’s executive order “Declaring a National Energy Emergency” authorizes the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to use emergency permitting to speed up energy projects.

The “Unleashing American Energy“ executive order calls for federal agencies to eliminate measures that slow down energy development.

West Virginia Coal Association President Chris Hamilton said the Biden administration promoted the slow down.

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New FERC Chairman Talks Electric Bills, Energy Demand and the Mountain Valley Pipeline

While he’s spent years as a government regulator deeply immersed in decisions that affect people’s electric and gas bills, Mark Christie says his upbringing in coal country gave him a perspective he never forgets. 

Christie was a product of Welch, West Virginia, public schools and worked a summer job as a coal miner to help pay for college. His father sold cars to coal miners to put food on the table.

What it gave me was just a sympathy and a strong belief that working Americans, people who worry about paying bills, that’s always got to be at the top of my priority list,” he said in a recent interview with Cardinal News.

Erosion control measures are shown along the Mountain Valley Pipeline route in Giles County. This image was submitted by MVP to federal regulators as part of a regular report on environmental compliance.

Christie was named chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Jan. 20, the first day of President Donald Trump’s second term. Christie joined the five-member nonpartisan, independent commission in 2021 and is one of its two Republican members.

Before joining FERC, Christie served on the Virginia State Corporation Commission for about 17 years. He estimates he was involved in more than 17,000 cases that came before the state agency that regulates banking, insurance and utilities.

While Virginia’s SCC regulates utilities within the borders of the commonwealth, FERC regulates the transmission of electricity, natural gas and oil when it crosses state lines. It also regulates the construction of interstate natural gas pipelines such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline.

Christie earned a law degree from Georgetown University and served as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps. He taught regulatory law for a decade at the University of Virginia School of Law and constitutional law and government for 20 years at Virginia Commonwealth University.  

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Coal Industry's Days Are Far From Over

Most West Virginians likely believe they have a general understanding of the significance of our coal industry in keeping the lights on for the rest of the country, and the size of its role in ensuring domestic energy security. But sometimes hard numbers make us take a step back from what we thought we knew.

According to CSX Corp.’s fourth quarter earnings report, the railroad has seen a 14% decline in domestic coal shipments for the full year — but a 9% increase in export shipments.

“Export coal decreased primarily due to reduced production, including planned and unplanned outages at customer facilities,” the report said, according to WV Public Broadcasting. “Domestic coal decreased primarily due to lower shipments of coal to utility plants, as well as lower thermal shipments to river terminals.”

CSX, which has more miles of track than any other railroad operating in West Virginia, moved only 39 million tons of domestic coal in 2024, down from 45 million tons in the previous year. On the other hand, it moved 44 million tons of export coal, up from 40 million tons in 2023.

Among the reasons for the shift are a change in the way the U.S. produces its electricity. Twenty years ago, coal accounted for approximately 50% of domestic electricity production. Now, it accounts for closer to 16%. And it’s not just renewable energy sources that have cut into coal’s dominance. Natural gas — another Appalachian resource — has contributed significantly to the shift.

To continue reading, click here to view the full article on CoalZoom.com.

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Gigawatts Hiding in Plain Sight

Where is the U.S. going to get the power needed to meet surging demand? It’s a question that has become a day-one issue for the Trump administration and the AI economic engine.

Just how much power are we talking and how fast? A recent forecast sees U.S. electricity demand rising 128 gigawatts (GW) over just the next five years—that’s like adding 80 million homes. And that forecast may already be too low. Just this week, PJM, the largest U.S. grid serving 65 million Americans, revised upward by 38% its electricity demand forecast for this coming decade. PJM now expects peak summer power demand to surge to 210 GW in 2035, a jump of 58 GW in a decade. Just a year earlier PJM saw peak summer demand reaching 177 GW in 2034. Load growth from planned data centers is changing the game.


While tech companies are pointing to the restart of a few mothballed nuclear power plants and the potential of small modular reactors to meet their massive, baseload power needs, those headlines don’t match reality. The power demand now on the horizon is coming at a speed and scale that requires generation immediately.

Some observers predict a natural gas generation boom, but utility executives are tempering expectations. NextEra CEO John Ketchum recently warned that new gas generation wouldn’t be available in large amounts until 2030, and gas plants will only be a viable option in certain parts of the country and at a much higher price point than just a few years ago.

The intermittency of renewable energy also makes it a poor fit for the around-the-clock power needs of data centers, and that’s not to overlook the towering hurdles now facing industrial scale renewable projects and their enabling infrastructure.
 
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