Coal Demand Poised For AI Boom, Says Core Natural Resources
Canonsburg, Pa.-based Core Natural Resources Inc. expects U.S. thermal coal demand to increase in the coming years as surging electricity needs from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and reindustrialization put new pressure on a power grid where coal plants are operating at less than half of their capacity, the company said on Aug. 6.
While demand softened during the second quarter because of mild weather, low natural gas prices, and high utility stockpiles, the Pennsylvania coal producer said it sees stronger market conditions in the second half of the year and thinks long-term fundamentals are improving.
The company reported second-quarter net income of $126.5 million, or $2.51 per diluted share, on $1.1 billion in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $323.6 million, while the company also recognized the remaining $125.4 million from the settlement of its Leer South mine insurance claim.
“While U.S. thermal coal demand was pressured by moderate temperatures, low natural gas prices, and inflated customer stockpiles during Q2, Core expects improving market dynamics in the year’s second half and views the longer term outlook as promising,” the company said in its market update.
U.S. grid operators are forecasting substantial growth in electricity demand through the end of the decade, driven by expanding AI data centers and a broader push toward reindustrialization, said Core.
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Trump Administration Wants to Mine Coal Under Federal Land in Alabama, Western States
More than 356 billion tons of coal resources lie beneath federally owned land in the contiguous United States, according to a government report, whose new and comprehensive findings could escalate mining in those areas, most of them in the West.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issued the report, which estimated an additional 4.2 billion tons of coal reserves are already within a mining area and could be profitably extracted in the lower 48 states.
Alaska has at least 140 billion tons of available coal and could contain as much as 5.5 trillion tons, the report said. There are currently 34 active coal mines on federal lands.
“American Energy Dominance is more important than ever, and so is beautiful clean coal’s role in the production of electricity needed to fuel our future prosperity,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a press release.
“Thanks to the USGS’s rigorous and independent assessment, we’re better equipped to manage America’s vast public lands responsibly while supporting energy security and economic opportunity.” The press release estimated that the coal reserves under federal lands “would be enough coal to supply all the nation’s needs for at least 600 years at the current rate of consumption.”
The environmental consequences of coal mining have been well-documented over many decades. Across the country, mining practices have polluted waterways with heavy metals and changed how water flows.
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U.S. Coal-Fired Generation Rises 13% as Electricity Demand Increases
U.S. coal-fired generation increased by 13% in 2025 as stronger electricity demand from data centres, manufacturing and hotter summer weather lifted power generation, contributing to a rise in power-sector carbon dioxide emissions. Total electric power generation increased by 3%, or 119 TWh, reaching a new annual record. The increase in U.S. coal-fired generation amounted to 85 TWh.
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Coal Use Increased as Data Center Electricity Demand Reshaped U.S. Power Grid, Federal Report Finds
Coal-fired power generation jumped 13% in the U.S. last year, according to a recent report from the federal Energy Information Administration. That helped push carbon emissions from the power sector up about 4% — the first rise after years of declining emissions.
The shift came as electricity use started growing again after decades of little change. The rapid expansion of AI data centers is one factor, along with growing demand for air conditioning during hotter weather.
Utilities are now being asked to supply more power than they expected just a few years ago, said Steve Piper, director of North American power and renewables research at S&P Global Energy.
"You need more of everything," he said. "You need more green energy, of course, but you're also running your gas plants more, running your coal plants more, and that puts upward pressure on emissions."
Piper said coal also became more competitive with natural gas last year, citing the EIA report’s finding that fuel costs helped drive the jump in coal generation.
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The Race for Power Leads Back to Coal
As demand for electricity from AI data centers soars, the data center industry has already indirectly been relying on the coal fleet to meet their soaring power needs. Now, data companies are getting directly into the game, contracting for power from coal plants and even trying to buy coal units.
Utilities too aren’t just delaying or outright cancelling coal plant retirements— they’re now working with the Trump administration to invest in these assets and ensure they can ramp up power for the demand surge to come. The administration is working with two dozen plant owners to upgrade units, bring a plant back online and potentially build two new coal plants.
A West Virginia Bidding War Reveals a National Trend
There was recently a bidding war in West Virginia between a data center developer and American Electric Power (AEP) for the 710-megawatt Longview coal plant. The Financial Times observed that the “bidding war underlines how coal has been brought in from the cold as US electricity demand soars.”
A notable shift is underway as rising demand collides with bottlenecks to get new generating resources on the grid. The existing coal fleet has rapidly emerged as critically important dispatchable capacity—capacity that is available today and capable of ramping up utilization rates to meet additional demand.
There are a range of estimates on just how much U.S. power demand is poised to grow, but projections for data center additions continue to balloon. A recent Bloomberg New Energy Finance base case forecast sees 118 GW of data center demand in 2030 and 194 GW by 2035, an upward revision of 52% and 83% from its last forecast released in January.
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